America Won’t Be Getting “Back To Normal”… Not Soon… Not Ever!

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https://youtube.com/watch?v=9n-GLsLypVM

I bet you must have heard that America already passed through the worst. But it’s clever to wonder if the recents reports aren’t being a little bit overly optimistic about the finishing line, without even considering the all the troubles we’re having in the path. That is to say, if we could compare our timeline with Italy’s or China’s, we’re not even halfway, since their lockdown was predicted to last 77 days, and we’re only on our 17th. So if you’re sitting at home wondering when you would get back to your regular routine, I’m afraid to say you’ll get a little disappointed.

By taking a look at how our supply chain is being affected we can already clearly see that is never going to be the same. Could you imagine that people would be panicking about toilet paper in 2020? I assume that when people realized this was real, their natural impulse was to fill in their stocks leaving the stores empty.

The American government officials that told us to “calm down” and “shop for the week” so then everything would soon go back in stock are the same ones who are taking severe security measurements to keep people off the streets, which means that when supply shortages happen and we’ll need to get out of our houses to get them, we’ll not only face other helpless families but the police – and i’ll tell you what: there will be violence.

At least for now, we still can find some essentials in the stores.But prices are climbing fast and some products are just impossible to find. A great amount of our products comes from China and even American products are processed in China, that only started to recover now and will obviously replenish its own inventory before starting to exporting to us. All this without even counting the products that are considered by the government as “non-essentials” locked on the stores and out of acess.

On one hand we have rules that are getting more and more restrictive, and on the other hand the economy scenario doesn’t look exciting at all, so If I could give you a little piece of advice I would say: be prepared.

We’re already watching our economy get destroyed right in front of our eyes. Never in history – including the Great Depression – have so many Americans been unemployed. Many of the people who lost their jobs are the ones who are least able to afford it – hourly workers. Those who work at or around minimum wage are less likely to have a savings account to see them through the rough spot.

And of course, the economic issues are bigger than that. Small businesses are in big trouble. Those who are not able to find a way to operate during these difficult times still have overhead and bills. They have rent and utilities for their place of business. Many have inventory payments that were due net-30.  Restaurants that can’t make the conversion to takeout and delivery, fitness studios, gyms, clothing stores, and many more independent businesses may never reopen after the government-imposed hiatus.
One by one, families across America are looking at disappearing income, higher prices, and with shelter-in-place orders nearly everywhere, no real way to seek new employment.

Right now we’re looking at short-term effects, but we will feel the effects of this situation for a very long time. In fact, it’s likely to change the economy forever.

As the economy continues to plummet because people are only purchasing the bare necessities, we’ll see other issues arise. How will you pay your rent or mortgage if your job qualifications are in a field that is now considered a luxury? How will you keep your utilities on when you’re not making any money? How will you feed your family, keep a roof over your head, pay for medical care, and maintain a vehicle?

If you’re a business owner, how will you keep operating if you have no working capital? How can you hire people if you don’t know whether you’ll be able to keep them on board for more than a couple of pay periods? How can you buy more inventory and can you even acquire that inventory anymore?  Will you be able to get the parts you need to repair items if you run a repair service business?

As you can see, there are more questions than answers. (source)
We’re just at the beginning of this bumpy ride, and there’s really no place that it leads except to an economic collapse even worse than the one that took place in the 1920s.

Epic Economist

Epic Economist

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